PredictiveThrower.h

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#pragma once
 
#include "Fitters/FitterBase.h"
 
class ParameterHandlerGeneric;
 
// ***************************
struct PredictiveSample {
// ***************************
  // Name of sample
  std::string Name;
  const SampleHandlerInterface* SamHandler;
  int LocalId;
  int Dimenstion;
};
 
class PredictiveThrower : public FitterBase {
 public:
  PredictiveThrower(Manager * const fitMan);
  virtual ~PredictiveThrower();
 
  void ProduceToys();
 
  void RunPredictiveAnalysis();
 
  void RunMCMC() override {
    MACH3LOG_ERROR("{} is not supported in {}", __func__, GetName());
    throw MaCh3Exception(__FILE__ , __LINE__ );
  };
 
 private:
   void SetParamters(std::vector<std::string>& ParameterGroupsNotVaried,
                     std::unordered_set<int>& ParameterOnlyToVary);
 
  void SetupToyGeneration(std::vector<std::string>& ParameterGroupsNotVaried,
                          std::unordered_set<int>& ParameterOnlyToVary,
                          std::vector<const M3::float_t*>& BoundValuePointer,
                          std::vector<std::pair<double, double>>& ParamBounds);
 
  bool LoadToys();
  void WriteToy(TDirectory* ToyDirectory, TDirectory* Toy_1DDirectory, TDirectory* Toy_2DDirectory, const int iToy);
  void WriteByModeToys(TDirectory* ByModeDirectory, const int iToy);
 
  void SetupSampleInformation();
 
  std::vector<std::string> GetStoredFancyName(ParameterHandlerBase* Systematics) const;
 
  std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>> MakePredictive(const std::vector<std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>>& Toys,
                                                   const std::vector<TDirectory*>& Director,
                                                   const std::string& suffix,
                                                   const bool DebugHistograms,
                                                   const bool WriteHist);
 
  void Study1DProjections(const std::vector<TDirectory*>& SampleDirectories) const;
  void StudyByMode1DProjections(const std::vector<TDirectory*>& SampleDirectories) const;
 
  void ProduceSpectra(const std::vector<std::vector<std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1D>>>>& Toys,
                      const std::vector<TDirectory*>& Director,
                      const std::string suffix,
                      const bool DoSummary = true) const;
 
  void MakeFluctuatedHistogram(TH1* FluctHist, TH1* PolyHist);
 
  void PredictiveLLH(const std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>& Data_histogram,
                     const std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>& PostPred_mc,
                     const std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>& PostPred_w,
                     const std::vector<TDirectory*>& SampleDir);
 
 
  void PosteriorPredictivepValue(const std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>& PostPred_mc,
                                 const std::vector<TDirectory*>& SampleDir);
  void ExtractLLH(TH1* DatHist, TH1* MCHist, TH1* W2Hist, const SampleHandlerInterface* SampleHandler) const;
 
  double CalcLLH(const double data,
                 const double mc,
                 const double w2,
                 const SampleHandlerInterface* SampleHandler) const;
 
  double CalcLLH(const TH1* DatHist,
                 const TH1* MCHist,
                 const TH1* W2Hist,
                 const SampleHandlerInterface* SampleHandler) const;
 
  double GetLLH(const TH1D* DatHist,
                const TH1D* MCHist,
                const TH1D* W2Hist,
                const SampleHandlerInterface* SampleHandler) const;
 
  double GetLLH(const TH2D* DatHist,
                const TH2D* MCHist,
                const TH2D* W2Hist,
                const SampleHandlerInterface* SampleHandler) const;
 
  double GetLLH(const TH2Poly* DatHist,
                const TH2Poly* MCHist,
                const TH2Poly* W2Hist,
                const SampleHandlerInterface* SampleHandler) const;
 
  void MakeChi2Plots(const std::vector<std::vector<double>>& Chi2_x,
                     const std::string& Chi2_x_title,
                     const std::vector<std::vector<double>>& Chi2_y,
                     const std::string& Chi2_y_title,
                     const std::vector<TDirectory*>& SampleDir,
                     const std::string Title);
 
  void StudyCorrelations(TDirectory* PredictiveDir,
                         const std::vector<std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>>& Toys,
                         const bool DebugHistograms) const;
 
  void StudyInformationCriterion(M3::kInfCrit Criterion,
                                 const std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>& PostPred_mc,
                                 const std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>& PostPred_w);
  void StudyBIC(const std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>& PostPred_mc,
                const std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>& PostPred_w);
  void StudyDIC(const std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>& PostPred_mc,
                const std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>& PostPred_w);
  void StudyWAIC();
  std::string GetBinName(TH1* hist,
                         const bool uniform,
                         const int Dim,
                         const std::vector<int>& bins) const;
  std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1D>> PerBinHistogram(TH1* hist,
                                                     const int SampleId,
                                                     const int Dim,
                                                     const std::string& suffix) const;
 
  void StudyBetaParameters(TDirectory* PredictiveDir);
  void MakeCutEventRate(TH1D *Histogram, const double DataRate) const;
  void RateAnalysis(const std::vector<std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>>& Toys,
                                       const std::vector<TDirectory*>& SampleDirectories) const;
 
  bool FullLLH;
  int NModelParams;
  bool Is_PriorPredictive;
 
  int TotalNumberOfSamples;
 
  std::vector<PredictiveSample> SampleInfo;
 
  int Ntoys;
 
  ParameterHandlerGeneric* ModelSystematic;
 
  std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>> Data_Hist;
  std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>> MC_Nom_Hist;
  std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>> W2_Nom_Hist;
 
  std::vector<std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>> MC_Hist_Toy;
  std::vector<std::vector<std::unique_ptr<TH1>>> W2_Hist_Toy;
 
  std::vector<double> ReweightWeight;
  std::vector<double> PenaltyTerm;
 
  bool StandardFluctuation;
};